Bettor Odds brings users the data & feeds to win sports betting, but what are the projections? How are they created & how can users take advantage of having access?
All sports lines are projections. Sportsbooks model out events to create a fair opening line, then move that line to user action.. Bettor Odds Projections are built to show where we believe the line should open (given the information available at that time). While the EV bettor uses “sportsbooks are right” methodology, it's obvious they have flaws. Lines that move massively from open, for example, show that books can't cover every sport to the detail needed to make an efficient line (in particular sports with multiple yearly changes I.e. College sports).. In comes Bettor Projections, a prediction system that hyper focuses on betting markets professionally to directionally point where openers should move
How do we do it & how can it help you?
Most sports models are built as a “Power Rating”. By shaping data to build out a rating for all components of an event, a model can find a fair price for any particular matchup. This is why leagues like the NFL are sharper at open (among other reasons): they have less moving variables (players staying for 8-12 years, rookies not often making massive instant impacts). In comes something like College Football: Eastern Michigan's kicker may have gotten a targeting call down 50 in a game no one was watching or betting, now he can’t play 1h of the next game. This is going to be really hard to price into a power rating fast enough for next day opens & where those with a pulse on the market can have an edge
Bettor Odds Projections track every game down to every play to determine a “true score” for the event. Let's say a team drives the ball to the red zone: 1st & goal and throws a pick 6. The box score will show the opponent 6 points, but the true score for the team marching down the field & getting into quality scoring position is worth points if simulated thousands of times.. We price in these factors to build a “true score” for each outcome while also tracking lineups to highlight injuries, what impact they could have on the overall scheme (not every College RB3 is good.. If RB1 & RB2 are hurt, what happens to the offense), along with hundreds of data points to create a projected score for future events
The Projections are hosted on the Bettor Odds platform & our team has had success using them in the betting market for the last 6 years winning at over a 57% rate, 5% ROI. These main market sides & totals will also help with overall account health for (looking at you EV snipers clicking mispriced lines all day) while also providing a directional arrow as to where we see the outcome forming, which can help with promotions or building correlation within the betting apps.
Projections across College Football, College Basketball, MLB (sides/totals + Player Props) available now! Coming soon: NFL (sides/totals + Player Props) & NBA (Player Props)
Check them out: 80% off 1st month code "CC"
Third Party tracking of pinged edges over L365 days
