Winning in Sports betting is tough. It's a weighted coin which beats over 95% of people who try. But, you have Bettor Odds. You’re sniping positions where sportsbooks are vulnerable daily and are now part of the 5% club of winners. You get a custom DM with a profitable bet over on Draftkings, click the hyperlink provided by Bettor Odds and BAM… they will only let you wager $6.47.
Well, this doesn’t seem fair. If we win we get restricted & if we lose they allow us to bet as much as we’d like. Why does this happen? How can we reduce the possibility of it happening again? Who makes these decisions & what is their reasoning so we can reverse engineer the system?
Here’s our chat with an account manager from *insert* sportsbook. Enjoy.
“What is the ideal customer for you? Someone you’re not cutting the cord on?”
- Simple. A loser. More specifically, a not so intelligent loser. This guy is at minimum a 3% net loser for us, gets no CLV, bets big time games right before kickoff and parlays 8 leggers like they are a buffet.
“You say no CLV. What does your market beat matter into the decision & what other indicators are you looking at?”
- CLV is very important. If I'm looking at an account that is at 1% net beating us, but they have no CLV, I'll leave them around for a while. If I have the same account that is 1% net losing to us, but massive line value, I still may limit it as over sample size It's hard for me to believe they’ll end up under that 3% net loser mark we’d like to see.
“Ok, so bettors are in a rough spot. Lose 3% and have no CLV…how can we hide in the weeds for as long as possible?”
- Our job is to find you, so I'd agree it's an inevitable more than a binary yes/no of will we find you…But there are certainly ways to fool us for a while. A few that come to mind are:
Bet things that we can’t easily gauge the true CLV. Example would be in house odds bets: very niche specific events that we likely aren’t going to move around. Something that correlates to the current landscape and we just want to poke to get action. Maybe we offer a “Caitlyn Clark to hit 2+ 3’s in every game this season. 1) that’s going to be hard to produce a line movement for. 2) It's giving us the action we wanted & long time horizon bets like this make your account look a little dumb. Which is great for you.
Parlay, Parlay, Parlay. Bettor Odds is awesome in the fact it points out quality wagers, but it also gives you the ability to see other legs that can be added to the slip in the sportsbook which will host +EV as well. So, if you could bet LeBron James o26 Pts -110 (4.5+ EV) or you could bet a parlay of LeBron James o26 pts + Maldonado no Single +121 (4.7% EV)...by connecting 2 quality wagers, 1) your EV is higher but 2) this is a much harder bet to determine if the account is sharp or not…So add in pieces to make the bets look “dumb” at times if applicable. (be aware the variance this will add to your net W/L, but over sample will work itself out if adding quality dummy legs)
**In our next update, Bettor Odds DM bot will send you tailored wagers, but the DM will also include a “dummy” bet recommendation (when applicable) for those worried about account longevity**
Timing matters. For many reasons, usually lines are softer in the AM, so you’ll end up with more CLV. However, if we wanted to take action from 2 accounts both playing Steelers ML -108 and closed -110, we’d like the account taking it an hour before more than the account taking it at 6 AM on Wednesday.
“A lot of my guys are promo banned or enjoy the promo game. Any advice there?”
- Promo bans come from the bucket you’re in. If you're labeled sharp, you’ll be promo banned. If you have a dummy account, you’re more likely to keep them. So, focus on the things above and don't just snipe good promos all day. We will toss you.
The biggest takeaway from our talk:
“How are you sniping the highest # of users? What are they doing to flag for you?”
- Betting off market lines all at the same time…Honestly, I believe this is where your weighted average is SO underrated. Let's say we are +100 and Pinnacle is -160…We will get 50 bets in 10 seconds on that number because people view Pinny so heavily historically…It's very easy to see that attempted snipe, then bucket the entire group together with an orange flag and watch future bets… But the crazy part, it may not even be a great bet. As you’ve shown, Pinny is awesome but not the end all be all. So, what if they were -60 and we took the bets and moved the line, but the true line was -112. You just flagged an account for 12 cents of value…Bettor Odds’ ability to constantly change and allow their user to look different than the average sniper will help users stay for quite some time. Especially if they use some of the ideas above.
Hope there are nuggets here which help in your betting endeavors. If you enjoyed it, check out @GetBettorOdds on Twitter and leave feedback!
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