EV Betting (as a Beginner)

EV betting is a beast that comes with its own battles, the successful bettors can find their way through these hurdles & those who can’t quickly give up hope. Let’s chat the beginning roadblocks & map out a gameplan to get you comfortable on your journey betting

Roadblock 1
Losing Bets

It sounds obvious, but when volume is added & no “opinion” is leveraged toward a bet.. Losing can become painful. You see, the nature of the beast in EV betting is volume. Many of our testimonials will have 5k+ Wagers involved to show that oh so beautiful consistent returns.. But zoom into the day to day, they go through some PATCHES.. Understanding the logic & math behind the wagers makes this mentally a bit easier.. BUT as a beginner, you don’t HAVE to fire on all spots. You may miss out on some value, but longevity in the game >>

Solution
Reduce EV, Increase win rate

Looking at our EV feed you’ll see all forms of wagers, but as an intro bettor looking to grab wins & build a BR may be an advantageous answer

5% EV +130 -> $4.80 expected profit. (Will win 45.7% of the time)
3.85% EV -130 -> $4.80 expected profit. (Will win 58.7% of time)
(assumes QK)

So yes, laying off the +$ will reduce your expected profits, but it’s a seesaw of ex profit and ex win rate. If you can mentally fight the fight of betting into low probability outcomes, your volume + expected profits will multiply, but as a beginner don’t feel forced into betting anything you’re not quite comfortable betting

Roadblock 2
High Variance = High Nerves

For people with some volume under their belt, they have seen time and time again that 5% EV on a player prop IS NOT 5% EV on an NFL Side day of. We price discover & use as much info as possible to make the EV shared/staking recommended to take note of this variance, but at times you’ll still find yourself CRUSHING the market yet losing.. For vets, it's the nature of the game but for new guys they want straight forward, they want nice and neat and to not take theoretical shots

Solution
Playing main markets a significantly higher amount of the time is going to reduce the theoretical variance of an outcome. Major sportsbooks are taking much more $ on these markets and have a higher conviction to their pricing, therefore a 3% EV should in turn bring much closer to a 3% ex return than if it was a player prop. My general recommendation for player props is simple: wait as long as you possibly can (though relatively inefficient, more info & more $ = more SHARP).. Next, I try to only bet player props which are directly arbable in the marketplace at the time of bet. This is typically a 5% EV wager on the Bettor Odds screen, but quickly clicking Book Details you can check. I have no plans to arb out, but having the ability to do so risk free (or close) if your line gets worse is a precaution i enjoy when betting props

Example: Lebron Over 23.5 pts +106 CZR, can get U23.5 -105 FD
CZR moves to +119.. Everyone stays the same, the ability to go clean off your +06 via FD then rebet +119 at an higher EV