American Football is consistently the largest (handle per event) sport in the US betting markets. With that, it’s inherently also the sharpest sport to bet. Today we look to condense betting theory into 1 article in hopes to give a nugget to your NFL betting journey. From Fantasy leagues to Power Polls, let’s hop right in
Fantasy Drafts
Let’s start off with the most beatable game, Player v Player. Fantasy Drafts come in all shapes and sizes, but we are focusing on gaining a slight edge in those small friend pools (but theory can work in Daily Fantasy, though that is a significantly more talented market). If you’re here, we assume you’re aware that sportsbooks are… Pretty good at what they do. So, let’s use their season props to build a projection guide. All books blended think CeeDee Lamb will have 1100 yards & 8.6 TDs? This can be easily quantified into fantasy scores & gives a different bering than what others are likely cross referencing when drafting. But that is alot of data scraping, so let me save you the trouble
Vegas Fantasy Projections -> https://pikkit.com/blog/promoguys-vegas-based-fantasy-football-rankings-preseason…
Promoguy does a great job with these rankings and comparing vs the Fantasy standard there are alot of off market snipes you can use to your advantage
Survivor Pools
Again, a PvP market which in small pools can be +EV, but the larger the pool the more likely to be playing against other sharp competitors. In small pools, less risky plays to stand out from the pack are needed whereas if you’re in Circa Millions, playing the theoretical correct games will get you into a pool with a ton of others doing the exact same. Here’s a season win % map to help fill in your Survivors
Ok the 2 major PvP leagues are out, now to the meat and potatoes. Understanding how to use the leagues "sharpness" to your advantage betting week in and week out.
Winning with Teasers
This is actually one of the only ways CC currently bets NFL, we spend more time focused on handicapping College Football (7 pending for week 1) and trust the math behind teasing a market like the NFL. Teasing sports is a general losing theory, but with the efficiencies of NFL lines near gametime there opens value in buying off key numbers in specific instances. In his 2001 book “Sharp Sports Betting” Stanford Wong back tested that legs fitting the teaser theory hit at a 76.1% of the time: Making a fair price of -140 to the 2 leg teaser
Rule to Wong teasing:
- As close to Start time as possible
- Total less than 49 (prerequisite)
- Bet Favorites -7.5 to -8.5 teased 6pt down
- Bet Underdogs +1.5 to +2.5 teased 6pt up
So: example bet would be
Chiefs -7.5/43.5
Seahawks +2/45.5
Chiefs -1.5/Seahawks +8 6 pt teaser -120
Many books have juiced up their teaser prices as this edge has existed openly for nearly 23 years. But with a “fair value” of -140, Books like BetOnline still offer -110 & Fanduel posted -120’s. Shop around and start adding teasers to your betting strategy. We adjust the specifics of our threshold some, trying to keep totals less than 45.5 & laying off the +2.5's (last second steam from pushing out of range).
Player Props
The NFL market has so much volume that some argue even player props are becoming efficient. Yet week to week, we see sportsbooks open props on different numbers. Getting Derrick Henry o11.5 carries when market is 13.5 becomes much more advantageous in the NFL and all markets will be found within the Bettor Odds EV feed. By Blending together market beats as well as a directional model, Player props are a beatable market. Don't worry, we've got the Model for ya as well!
Season Wins
Betting models often make up their opinion on a specific outcome with a "Cruise Ship" rather than a "Speed Boat" ability to change 180 on their opinion. By building out season win totals, we can quickly quantify where the market disagrees and week to week watch if they attempt to turn ship or are more confident in the opinion. The Bettor Odds community has Elkhour, who is the absolute man modeling NFL for years helping the community find angles from player props to sides and totals to take advantage of this slow turning boat. Let's say Y team's defense is having injury issues, playing a "bad team" in market but our ranking like the matchup, it makes for an easy spotlight to the player prop angles in that event
So Season wins help paint the long term outcome for all teams, but what is Elk's opinion on the current power ratings of these teams? Week 1 is coming up, how are we looking? In come power rankings
Power Rating
Using this, we can quickly determine a spread/total in any matchup. Chiefs -11 vs Patriots on a neutral field? With current bias toward the situation in New England, its safe to say that would open closer to 2 TD's and be highlighted in Elks weekly breakdown as to why potentially we see value on the Dog.
We will be sharing NFL projection updates weekly on the Bettor Odds Pikkit/Twitter
If you're curious what went into these models + Previews for all 32 teams, Elk made a 47 page season preview in the Bettor Odds Community including a "Best Betting Angle" for EVERY TEAM, 15 futures he has locked in, & In depth breakdowns of every team -> Code "CC" 80% off
Key Takeaways
1) If done correctly, small PvP pools will bring highest xROI
2) Bet Wong Teasers
3) Focus on Sniping Player Props
4) Don't overreact to info. Cruise Ship > Speed Boat brain